Obama Strategy Based On Delegates, Not Voters

Almost from the beginning, Hillary Rodham Clinton‘s superior name recognition and her sway with state party organizations convinced Barack Obama‘s brain trust that a junior senator from Illinois was not going to be able to challenge the Clinton political machine head-on.

The insurgent strategy the group devised instead was to virtually cede the most important battlegrounds of the Democratic nomination fight to Clinton, using precision targeting to minimize her delegate hauls, while going all out to crush her in states where Democratic candidates rarely ventured.

The result may have lacked the glamour of a sweep, but last night, with the delegates he picked up in Montana and South Dakota and a flood of superdelegate endorsements, Obama sealed one of the biggest upsets in U.S. political history and became the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter to wrest his party’s nomination from the candidate of the party establishment. The surprise was how well his strategy held up — and how little resistance it met.

“We kept waiting for the Clinton people to send people into the caucus states,” marveled Jon Carson, one of Obama’s top ground-game strategists.

“It’s the big mystery of the campaign,” said campaign manager David Plouffe, “because every delegate counts.”

Source: Washington Post

Such is the price of over confidence for Hillary Clinton. Not to mention the fact that the Legacy Media was in the tank for Obama. I hope that Obama does not put her on the ticket with him, that would seal the fate of the GOP this time around.

West Virginia Primary Results and Ruminations

First, the Democrats:

1. 67.0% Clinton 239,062
2. 25.7% Obama 91,652
3. 07.3% Edwards 26,076

And, the GOP:

1. 76.0% McCain 89,683
2. 10.3% Huckster12,175
3. 05.0% Paul 5,914
4. 04.4% Romney 5,188
5. 02.4% Rudy 2,831
6. 01.2% Keyes 1,426
7. 00.6% Others 727

Source: New York Slimes

Observations

Edwards, the man who dropped out months ago, got nearly 1/3 the vote that Obama did, and nearly 75% of West Virginians voted against the presumptive Democratic nominee. What a protest vote, indeed!

On the other hand, 24% of Republicans voted against the GOP nominee. Not quite the showing the Democrats engaged in, to be sure. Also, there were two Republicans still on the ballot, and ordinarily one would expect the protest vote to coalesce around the minority candidate, however, this year that minority man is Ron Paul..an unacceptable man to the majority of right-thinking Republicans. He received a mere 5%, while the Huckster received more than twice his vote (10.3%) and another 9.6% also said no to Ron Paul, McCain, and the Huckster.

This has been one of the very few benefits to the Ron Paul Supporters (I call them Pauleroids) joining the GOP…it dampens any breakout power that they, or their candidate could have. They have been reduced to formulating resolutions, and planning temper tantrums that will further damage their standing in the party. Just imagine the damage a Ron Paul/Bob Barr ticket could have done to us in the General Election. By himself, Bob Barr is just sad humorless, sarcastic man. With Ron Paul, those two men could have been Ross Perot, redux. With a weak candidate like John McCain, we cannot afford that. God has already given us the gift of Obama, who is about the weakest candidate the Democrats could have put up. He hasn’t decided to give us over to the fire just yet…we have been given another go at it.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: Rasmussen

Here is some more polling data for you to chew on before the North Carolina and Indiana primaries tomorrow:

The Democrat Race is tight (within the margin of error):

1. 46% Barack Obama
2. 45% Hillary Clinton

Interesting Democrat Demographics

Clinton leads Obama among the self-employed, entrepreneurs, and retirees. Obama leads among government employees and those who work for a private sector company. White working class voters remain a challenge for Obama. Among White voters who earn less than $75,000 a year, Clinton leads Obama 59% to 32%. The lower the income level, the bigger her margins. However, among White voters who earn more than $75,000 annually, Obama leads Clinton by eight percentage points.

And here are two scenarios for the general election:

Option A (most likely)

1. 47% John McCain
2. 43% Barack Obama

Option B (not so much)

1. 47% John McCain
2. 43% Hillary Clinton

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

Source: Rasmussen Reports

Commentary

Tomorrow will be a test for the veracity of the polls, and for seeing how much damage the Reverend Wright story has done to Obama. He once led Hillary by 20 points in North Carolina, and may be barely ten points ahead at the close of the polls tomorrow.

I expect the super delegates to be cowered by the shrill voices of the progressive wing of the Democrat party…and allow an untenable candidate to advance to the primary. They will fail in their function. The Hunt Commission‘s work will be ignored, and the Democrats will taste bitter defeat, and will continue to do so as long as the progressives retain control over the Daily Kos, the 527 PACs, and a willing Sugar Daddy named George Soros allows them a voice beyond their numbers.

They will likely win more Senate and House seats if McCain’s coat-tails aren’t made of conservative cloth, and this will obscure the deadly poison the progressives have injected into the Democrat party, especially if Hillary is able to mount a floor fight at the convention. No Democrat has ever won the Presidential Race when the nomination was not won prior to the Party Convention, nor after an April lock on the nomination.

I wonder what kind of conspiracy theory of the ‘stolen election’ variety the Democrats will dream up to explain away three defeats in a row for the White House? Now, THAT will be entertaining!

Potomac Primaries Swept By Top Candidates

Both top candidates swept yesterday’s Potomac Primaries.

VIRGINIA

1. 64% Barack Obama 614,490
2. 35% Hillary Clinton 345,211

MARYLAND

1. 59% Barack Obama 439,979
2. 37% Hillary Clinton 273,828

DC

1. 75% Barack Obama 85,534
2. 24% Hillary Clinton 27,326

DEMOCRAT DELEGATE COUNTS

2,025 needed to win. 1624 Available.

1. 1223 (160 super delegates) Barack Obama 802 needed
2. 1198 (242 super delegates) Hillary Clinton 827 needed

VIRGINIA

1. 50% John McCain 242,804
2. 41% Mike Huckabee 197,905
3. 9% Other

MARYLAND

1. 55% John McCain 157,906
2. 29% Mike Huckabee 84,021
3. 6% Mitt Romney 17,993
4. 6% Ron Paul 17,242

Ha Ha Ha! Ron Paul couldn’t even place above a withdrawn candidate!

DC

1. 68% John McCain 3,929
2. 17% Mike Huckabee 961
3. 8% Ron Paul 471

GOP DELEGATE COUNTS

1,191 needed to win. 1,008 Available.

1. 821 (19 unpledged) McCain 370 needed
2. 288 ( 6 unpledged) Romney 903 needed
3. 241 ( 4 unpledged) Huckabee 950 needed
4. 16 (unknown) Paul 1,175 needed

[note–10.57 am– At this point, all GOP Candidates except McCain are essentially mathematically eliminated. The GOP Primary is over.]

One last thing I have noticed…Huckabee and Clinton seem to win in the same geographic regions, and Obama and McCain seem to win the same general geographic regions…to whit, these maps below:

Washington Post

Washington Post

Hillary and Huckabee take the western-most counties, and Obama and MCain take the eastern-most counties, setting up a rural vs. urban and suburban thing. Something to keep in mind for this fall.

270 Million Firearms !!!

Be proud Americans!

GENEVA (Reuters) – The United States has 90 guns for every 100 citizens, making it the most heavily armed society in the world, a report released on Tuesday said.

U.S. citizens own 270 million of the world’s 875 million known firearms, according to the Small Arms Survey 2007 by the Geneva-based Graduate Institute of International Studies.

About 4.5 million of the 8 million new guns manufactured worldwide each year are purchased in the United States, it said.

“There is roughly one firearm for every seven people worldwide. Without the United States, though, this drops to about one firearm per 10 people,” it said.

India had the world’s second-largest civilian gun arsenal, with an estimated 46 million firearms outside law enforcement and the military, though this represented just four guns per 100 people there. China, ranked third with 40 million privately held guns, had 3 firearms per 100 people.

Germany, France, Pakistan, Mexico, Brazil and Russia were next in the ranking of country’s overall civilian gun arsenals.

On a per-capita basis, Yemen had the second most heavily armed citizenry behind the United States, with 61 guns per 100 people, followed by Finland with 56, Switzerland with 46, Iraq with 39 and Serbia with 38.

Continued…

Commentary

WooHoo! And that is the primary reason we are the freest nation on the earth, and will be for quite a while.

The Jihad in Europe; Demographic Invasion USA

One of my favorite bloggers was recently in Europe attending a Counter Jihad Summit [One] [Two] [Three] [Four] [*Five*] [Six] last month. The fifth link contains the meat if you only have time to read one.

All this to get you to the point of a recent post entitled, “Conversations with Fjordman” where he discusses the state of the jihad in Europe. A snippet:

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The more I investigate the Great Jihad, the more important Europe seems. The United States military fights on the front lines of the “War on Terror”, but Europeans live on the front lines. What happens in Europe is crucial: if the USA follows Denmark’s example, we can expect to defeat the Jihad. If we use Sweden as a model, we can put our head between our legs right now and kiss our collective fundament goodbye.

In either case, what happens in Europe foreshadows the shape of things to here in the USA.

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—snip—

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Social welfare policies, on the other hand, are still under the control of the individual European states. As a result, Third World immigrants — many of whom subsist on state payments — tend to move to where the welfare programs are the most generous. The largest concentrations of Muslims are thus found in the big cities of Germany, the Netherlands, Britain, and Sweden. The country borders within the EU behave like permeable membranes between plant cells, with the osmotic pressure of welfare regulating the flow of rent-seekers from one country to another.

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This could also be applied to the United States as far as Illegal Aliens moving to states where they are treated better by social welfare programs, and they are not hassled while finding work…in particular North Carolina, where it is notoriously easy to get Drivers Licenses:

Currently, North Carolina and five other states allow the use of an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN) as proof of identity when issuing driver’s licenses and identification cards. A taxpayer identification number does not prove you are who you say you are. This allows illegal aliens to come to North Carolina and get a driver’s license with nothing more than a slip of paper with numbers on it.[Source]

While I haven’t seen these two issues linked together in such a fashion; I believe there is a parallel that we could draw lessons from the comparison.

Update: Al Fin has a post on the demographics of the Muslim Invasion of Europe.

Another Update: The Skipper has posted on Mexican Demographics concerning death and migration.