Thunderpig’s Mirror

Archive for the ‘Global Ice Age’ Category

Record Setting Chill in Anchorage This Summer; Global Temperature Continue Decline

Posted by Thunder Pig on July 27, 2008

The coldest summer ever? You might be looking at it, weather folks say. Right now the so-called summer of ‘08 is on pace to produce the fewest days ever recorded in which the temperature in Anchorage managed to reach 65 degrees.
That unhappy record was set in 1970, when we only made it to the 65-degree mark, which many Alaskans consider a nice temperature, 16 days out of 365.This year, however — with the summer more than half over — there have been only seven 65-degree days so far. And that’s with just a month of potential “balmy” days remaining and the forecast looking gloomy.

Source: Watt’s Up With That?

it’s been a cool summer here in my valley…I have yet to turn on my air conditioning this summer, and several mornings have been in the upper 40’s, forcing me to wear a jacket on my way to the office.

And I guess this would be a good time to point out the July Update on Global Temperature that came out a couple of days ago (and duly shared via my Google Reader) that shows a continued cooling trend. While June was the 9th warmest June on record, it was part of a trend of ever cooler Junes after the peak in 1998. You won’t hear the fear mongering Legacy Media report that fact.

I am also working on adding a Climate News section to West Carolina Report, and an RSS Feed to go with it.

Posted in Climate, Global Ice Age, science, weather | 2 Comments »

The American Phsyical Society Reverses View On Global Warming, Will Sponsor Debates To Test Validity

Posted by Thunder Pig on July 17, 2008

The American Physical Society, an organization representing nearly 50,000 physicists, has reversed its stance on climate change and is now proclaiming that many of its members disbelieve in human-induced global warming. The APS is also sponsoring public debate on the validity of global warming science. The leadership of the society had previously called the evidence for global warming “incontrovertible.”

In a posting to the APS forum, editor Jeffrey Marque explains,”There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution.”

Source: Watts Up With That?


Commentary

I note that today is the 74th day in a row without a sunspot, and what may be a Cycle 23 spot is coming around the western limb of the sun. And for all you lefties that keep quoting the various IPCC Reports, read this devastating analysis [pdf download] of that flawed organization:

The IPCC is a single-interest organisation, whose charter presumes a widespread human influence on climate, rather than consideration of whether such influence may be negligible or missing altogether. Though the IPCC’s principles also state that a wide range of views is to be sought when selecting lead authors and contributing authors, this rule has been honored more in the breach than in the observance. More than two-thirds of all authors of chapter 9 of the IPCC’s 2007 climate-science assessment are part of a clique whose members have co-authored papers with each other and, we can surmise, very possibly at times acted as peer-reviewers for each other’s work.

Of the 44 contributing authors, more than half have co-authored papers with the lead authors or coordinating lead authors of chapter 9.It is no surprise, therefore, that the majority of scientists who are skeptical of a human influence on climate significant enough to be damaging to the planet were unrepresented in the authorship of chapter 9. Many of the IPCC authors were climate modelers – or associated with laboratories committed to modeling – unwilling to admit that their models are neither accurate nor complete.

Posted in CAGW, Global Ice Age, global warming, Solar Cycles | Leave a Comment »

Graphing Temperatures and Counting Sunspots

Posted by Thunder Pig on July 4, 2008

There are many people tracking what may be the beginning of a new temperture trend…downward. Among them, comes this report:

The latest UAH anomaly is -0.114. On the heels of a -0.183 reading for May, this is the steppest 2-month negative anomaly since Sept/Oct 1993. It’s the lowest 3-month anomaly since 1997. The latest reading gives 10 consecutive year-over-year anomalies that are lower than previous year. The last such stretch was in the period beginning May 1999. The negative trend line goes back to July 1997 – exactly 11 years.

 That comes from Digital Diatribes, who does yeoman’s work on tracking numbers, building spreadsheets and graphs.

And from another Digital Warrior, comes this graph:

The graph plots the long term trend [1st order curve in blue] against the short term trend [5th order curve in red].

The long term trend line is simply a first-order curve [line] from the beginning temperature to the ending temperature, and it treats all the ups and downs in between as random noise, and the short term trend takes into account more of the data using a fifth-order curve; and is one of the form fx5 + ex4 + dx3 + cx2 + bx + a, and is much more robust for fitting temperature trends.

The fifth-order curve is a leading indicator that can indicate the future direction of the first-order curve. Of course, my bet is that the Global Warming Religionists will simply move their beginning plot back to the Little Ice Age like some of the commenters have suggested.
Since no one seems to be plotting the moving averages of the data like I do for stock prices, I wonder if there would be any utility in doing that.

I still remember the predictions by NASA that Solar Cycle 24 was going to be “one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago” and here we are, two years late for the solar minimum, and the sun the most quiescent in a very long time. A few Solar Cycle 24 sunspots appeared in January, but their number has been few and far between, with Solar Cycle 23 sunspots still appearing at a greater frequency than the 24 spots. The solar minimum is measured at the point in time where the spots of the new cycle out number the spots of the old cycle. It has been two months since the last Cycle 24 spot.

NASA is still standing by their already outdated April 2007 forecast.

The current sunspot number is 0.

I wonder when the Legacy Media will start to notice that the predictions of the Global Warming Religionists are not coming to pass?

Posted in CAGW, Global Ice Age, science | Leave a Comment »

No Warming For Last Eleven Years

Posted by Thunder Pig on June 20, 2008

Charts are included at Watts Up With That? that show no global warming for last eleven years, despite a continued increase in CO2 levels. Hmmm. No wonder lefties have been in a bad mood lately.

Al Fin has reported on the quiet Sun, which may be to blame for the recent slide of global temperatures, and we may be getting colder yet.

And, let me ask, where are the sunspots of Solar Cycle 24? And why are there so very few of them?

**update** 2.05pm

I forgot to add that there is already talk of calling the potential Solar Minimum we are entering the Landscheidt Minimum because he predicted it.

The more politically inclined among us might want to call it the Gore Minimum, or even the Gore-Hansen Minimum to mock those who were so very wrong about Global Warming, and man’s impact on global temperatures.

For more reading on Landscheidt, I suggest a series of five articles:

My Random March Through the Insanity of Solar Cycle Research (aka – Explanation of Landsheidt’s first paper, part 1)

Landscheidt Part 2

Landscheidt, Part 3

Landscheidt, Part 4 (Summary of Eddy’s “The Maunder Minimum”)

Landscheidt 5 (Review of Eddy’s “The Case of the Missing Sunspots”)

And most of his papers can be found at Landscheidt Cycles Research.

And, in all my “debates” with lefties one thing is very clear…despite all the evidence you may present them, they will always try to find another way to justify their attacks on Capitalism, Western Civilization, and try to get us to volunteer to change our lives to suit their political agenda.

Don’t let them. They are liars, and their ultimate goal is to destroy our way of life. And I will bet you something right now. When it starts to become obvious that the earth’s climate is going into a cooling cycle…they will continue their attacks on our way of life, despite being proven so utterly and completely wrong. That is one reason why they have started to refer to “Climate Change” instead of “Global Warming”.

I refer you to the excellent Gateway Pundit “Brrrr” series of posts chronicling the cooling earth. The latest one notes the record snowfall in Spokane, Washington!

Posted in al fin, Concepts, Global Ice Age, global warming, science, Solar Cycles | Leave a Comment »

Ultralong Solar Cycle 23 and Possible Consequences

Posted by Thunder Pig on May 26, 2008

Here are snippets from the report:

SOLAR CYCLES AND TEMPERATURES

When the sun is more active, it is brighter than when it is quiet. This difference in brightness or irradiance over the 11 year cycle is about 0.1%. The irradiance change though since the little ice age may be as high as 0.4 or 0.5% and has been used to explain the ice age and recovery since. Even on the shorter term, there are other solar factors at play besides simple brightness or irradiance changes.

While irradiance changes just 0.1% over the 11 year cycle, ultraviolet radiation changes 6 to 8% and shorter wavelengths even more. Ultraviolet radiation destroys ozone, an exothermic process which produces warming in the higher atmosphere in low to mid latitudes that works its way down to the middle troposphere in time. Labitzke (2001) has shown statistically significant differences of temperatures in the lower stratosphere into the middle troposphere with the 11 year solar cycle (warmest at max) which she attributes to solar flux induced ultraviolet variance. Shindell et al NASS GISS (1999) showed results from a global climate model including ozone and UV found UV induced stratospheric ozone changes and generated heat that penetrates into the troposphere, in effect confirming Labitzke’s findings.

Also an active sun causes a diffusion of cosmic rays, which have a low cloud enhancement effect through ion mediated nucleation. Low clouds reflect radiation and have a net cooling effect. The absence of them during active solar periods means more radiation reaching the surface. Enhanced low cloudiness during solar minima would augment cooling.

–==[SNIP]==–

The best forecast in recent years has been by Ken Schatten (AI Solutions) and Sabatino Sofia (Yale). That forecast requires analysis of conditions at solar minimum and since that has not clearly happened yet it is not available. Schatten has another method he has used and is projecting a quieter (SSN maximum of 80 or less) cycle 24.

Clilverd and others in 2007 did a statistical analysis [pdf report] of the various cycles and used their superimposition to correctly hindcast the past cycles. He projects a cycle max of around 40 for the next two cycles, similar to the Dalton Minimum 200 years ago.

A similar finding was made by Archibald who speculates a major cooling ahead that could rival or be worse than the Dalton Minimum. In the hyperlinked paper [pdf report], he even projects the impact on some US locations based on historical trendlines. Such a cooling would of course further call into question the idea that greenhouse gases are behind all the changes in our climate and natural factors are now suddenly unimportant. In our recent stories, we have shown how important ENSO and the multidecadal cycles in the oceans are to temperatures. It is my belief that someday we will find proof that soplar changes drive the ocean cycles which drive the land temperatures.

Source: Intellicast (This Week In Weather)

Commentary

I’ve warned repeatedly on this blog that we may be headed for a Cold Catastrophe. This flies in the face of the Global Warming Hoaxers, Progressives and Socialists. The globe has been coolling since 1998, and even more is in store in the years ahead. Growing seasons will shorten, fuel supplies will dwindle as the winters lengthen, and people will die because these very same Global Warming people denied the truth of a cooling globe. Perhaps this folly will kill as many people as their failed ideology of Communism did in the 20th Century…when will people learn to do the opposite of what these progressives advocate?

Posted in CAGW, Global Ice Age, global warming, Progressives, science | 1 Comment »

Environmentalists’ Wild Predictions

Posted by Thunder Pig on May 8, 2008

Climate Changes In Cycles
The latest from Walter E. Williams on the failed predictions of doom by a legion of lying lefties (but I repeat myself):

Now that another Earth Day has come and gone, let’s look at some environmentalist predictions that they would prefer we forget.

At the first Earth Day celebration, in 1969, environmentalist Nigel Calder warned, “The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind.” C.C. Wallen of the World Meteorological Organization said, “The cooling since 1940 has been large enough and consistent enough that it will not soon be reversed.” In 1968, Professor Paul Ehrlich, Vice President Gore’s hero and mentor, predicted there would be a major food shortage in the U.S. and “in the 1970s … hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death.” Ehrlich forecasted that 65 million Americans would die of starvation between 1980 and 1989, and by 1999 the U.S. population would have declined to 22.6 million. Ehrlich’s predictions about England were gloomier: “If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”

In 1972, a report was written for the Club of Rome warning the world would run out of gold by 1981, mercury and silver by 1985, tin by 1987 and petroleum, copper, lead and natural gas by 1992. Gordon Taylor, in his 1970 book “The Doomsday Book,” said Americans were using 50 percent of the world’s resources and “by 2000 they [Americans] will, if permitted, be using all of them.” In 1975, the Environmental Fund took out full-page ads warning, “The World as we know it will likely be ruined by the year 2000.”

Harvard University biologist George Wald in 1970 warned, “… civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.” That was the same year that Sen. Gaylord Nelson warned, in Look Magazine, that by 1995 “… somewhere between 75 and 85 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”

It’s not just latter-day doomsayers who have been wrong; doomsayers have always been wrong. In 1885, the U.S. Geological Survey announced there was “little or no chance” of oil being discovered in California, and a few years later they said the same about Kansas and Texas. In 1939, the U.S. Department of the Interior said American oil supplies would last only another 13 years. In 1949, the Secretary of the Interior said the end of U.S. oil supplies was in sight. Having learned nothing from its earlier erroneous claims, in 1974 the U.S. Geological Survey advised us that the U.S. had only a 10-year supply of natural gas. The fact of the matter, according to the American Gas Association, there’s a 1,000 to 2,500 year supply.

Source: Walter E. Williams (please read the whole thing)

Commentary

My favorite passage from the column is the following Glittering Jewel of Colossal Ignorance:

Harvard University biologist George Wald in 1970 warned, “… civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.” That was the same year that Sen. Gaylord Nelson warned, in Look Magazine, that by 1995 “… somewhere between 75 and 85 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”

It is the same with the Global Warming Hoax, and lefties (and their useful idiots) try to use that lie to enact various schemes designed to kill capitalism and institute socialism in it’s place…even trying to use carbon as currency.

It is my hope that we can hold them off long enough for the effects of the current cooling cycle to become evident to all…and wake people up that the very efforts of lefties to stave off Global Warming will only worsen the effects of the coming cool down of the globe.

We should be Exploring and Drilling for Oil, mining coal, building oil refineries, coal gasification plants, coal and nuclear power plants as fast as humanly possible to mitigate the catastrophe that will see bitterly cold winters, and shorter growing seasons that may see millions starve.

Liberalism and it’s sister ideology of Communism aren’t satisfied with 100 million dead in the 20th century…their false gods demand millions more in the 21st.

Previously:

Global warming Update: Spring Snow in Britain

The Sun is Dimming and Scientists Fight for Funding to Study for Harbingers of New Ice Age

Russian scientist says Earth could soon face new Ice Age

More Inconvenient Truth for Algore
Warming Much Less Than Previously Thought

Fire and Ice–Journalists Can’t Decide

A Global Temperature Chart
Not in Al Gore’s Movie

There’s more…but you get the picture.

Posted in CAGW, economic socialism, Global Ice Age, Lies From The Left | Leave a Comment »

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Has Switched To Cold

Posted by Thunder Pig on April 30, 2008

Brrrr!….sounds like more cool weather headed this way!

A cool-water anomaly known as La Niña occupied the tropical Pacific Ocean throughout 2007 and early 2008. In April 2008, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that while the La Niña was weakening, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation—a larger-scale, slower-cycling ocean pattern—had shifted to its cool phase.

This image shows the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean from April 14–21, 2008. The anomaly compares the recent temperatures measured by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite with an average of data collected by the NOAA Pathfinder satellites from 1985–1997. Places where the Pacific was cooler than normal are blue, places where temperatures were average are white, and places where the ocean was warmer than normal are red.

The cool water anomaly in the center of the image shows the lingering effect of the year-old La Niña. However, the much broader area of cooler-than-average water off the coast of North America from Alaska (top center) to the equator is a classic feature of the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The cool waters wrap in a horseshoe shape around a core of warmer-than-average water. (In the warm phase, the pattern is reversed).

Source: Watt’s Up With That?
Hat Tip: NC Media Watch
More Info: PDO
Solar Influence: Al Fin
Gateway Pundit: Brrrr!
Research Paper: Is Climate Sensitive to Solar Variability?

Despite what lefties say, the evidence is mounting, and the world is getting colder, which will be a disaster for mankind as growing seasons grow shorter, and as idiot lefties advocate burning food as fuel. And, as Jerry Pournelle points out, England did go from having Deciduous Trees to a 100 foot thick ice sheet in just a hundred years.

Posted in CAGW, disaster, Global Ice Age, NASA, science | Leave a Comment »

Waiting For Solar Cycle 24

Posted by Thunder Pig on March 24, 2008

Waiting for 24

This is a time of turmoil within all fields of climate science–although you would never know it from the public front as reflected by the popular media. The orthodoxy is circling the wagons, with the unquestioning assistance of global media and national governments, inter-governments, and non-governmental lobbyist organisations.

Under a Stalinist world government, the climate orthodoxy might have a chance of pulling the wool over the global public’s eyes long enough to put an irrevocable “climate change economic regime” into place. Under such an economic regime, market mechanisms would be so painfully and dysfunctionally distorted that even in the case of a significant climate cooling–equivalent to a Maunder Minimum–the ability of human science and technology to respond in a timely or effective fashion will have been hamstrung.

Source: Al Fin

The longer it takes for #24 to begin, the cooler it will get…

Posted in CAGW, Global Ice Age, science | 1 Comment »

Global Warming Update: Spring Snow in Great Bitain

Posted by Thunder Pig on March 21, 2008

In yet another blow to the climate orthodoxy dogma of “warmer, ever warmer”, an arctic freeze is descending over much of England and Scotland for Easter this year.

Arctic winds are forecast to sweep across Britain and bring widespread frosts over the Easter weekend, with snow in eastern regions….Conditions will be worst in Scotland and northern England but below-freezing temperatures and a sprinkling of snow are possible even in the South East – alongside strong winds and driving rain…..Helen Chivers, of the Met Office, said that weather conditions would deteriorate across the country this week. “It looks as though we are going to have a white Easter. We’ve got northerly winds sweeping in from Thursday,” she said. “We will be looking at nighttime temperatures of minus 2C (28F) or minus 3C in quite a lot of rural areas.”

Source: Al Fin

The Ice Age Cometh!

Posted in al fin, CAGW, Global Ice Age, science | Leave a Comment »

Southern Baptists Fall For The Lie of Global Warming

Posted by Thunder Pig on March 10, 2008

This is a sad story:

New York – In a major shift, a group of Southern Baptist leaders said their denomination has been “too timid” on environmental issues and has a biblical duty to stop global warming.

The declaration, signed by the president of the Southern Baptist Convention among others and released Monday, shows a growing urgency about climate change even within groups that once dismissed claims of an overheating planet as a liberal ruse. The conservative denomination has 16.3 million members and is the largest Protestant group in the U.S.

The signers of “A Southern Baptist Declaration on the Environment and Climate Change” acknowledged that not all Christians accept the science behind global warming. They said they do not expect fellow believers to back any proposed solutions that would violate Scripture, such as advocating population control through abortion.

However, the leaders said that current evidence of global warming is “substantial,” and that the threat is too grave to wait for perfect knowledge about whether, or how much, people contribute to the trend.

Source: Asheville Citizen-Times

The Southern Baptists have been one of the few denominations left who have resisted the leftward march to moral relativism engaged in by the secular elements of our society (recently joined by an increasing number of lefty denominations).

They have stood on the Word of God as Immutable.

Now, they have fallen for The Big Lie of Global Warming, perhaps to the point of buying the lie that Socialism is the Answer to Global Warming.

In response to the article, I visited the website of the Southern Baptist Environment and Climate Initiative and found a series of statements and a conclusion:

A portion of the Preamble

We have recently engaged in study, reflection and prayer related to the challenges presented by environmental and climate change issues. These things have not always been treated with pressing concern as major issues. Indeed, some of us have required considerable convincing before becoming persuaded that these are real problems that deserve our attention. But now we have seen and heard enough to be persuaded that these issues are among the current era’s challenges that require a unified moral voice.

We believe our current denominational engagement with these issues have often been too timid, failing to produce a unified moral voice. Our cautious response to these issues in the face of mounting evidence may be seen by the world as uncaring, reckless and ill-informed. We can do better. To abandon these issues to the secular world is to shirk from our responsibility to be salt and light. The time for timidity regarding God’s creation is no more.

Therefore, we offer these four statements for consideration, beginning with our fellow Southern Baptists, and urge all to follow by taking appropriate actions. May we find ourselves united as we contend for the faith that was delivered to the saints once for all. Laus Deo!

Here are the statements (in bold) and my responses:

Statement 1

Humans Must Care for Creation and Take Responsibility for Our Contributions to Environmental Degradation.

The Southern Baptists need to consider that the best thing for our environment is Capitalism. They need to consider that the USA has the cleanest environment in the world, and that nations who have lived under Socialism have had catastrophic effects on their environments, polluting their water, their soil, and their air.

Statement 2

It Is Prudent to Address Global Climate Change.

Addressing Climate Change involves more government regulation, more socialism, more theft of property and rights from the individual, and decreases freedom and capitalism…and will not result in any change to the Global Warming and Cooling Cycles.

Statement 3

Christian Moral Convictions and Our Southern Baptist Doctrines Demand Our Environmental Stewardship.

Again, the Southern Baptists have fallen for the lie that we are responsible for global climate change, and insist in the statement that the poorest among us are hardest hit. The poorest among us are hardest hit by socialism, and helped in the greatest amount by capitalism, and voluntary Christianity Charity…for forced charity is another name for theft.

Statement 4

It Is Time for Individuals, Churches, Communities and Governments to Act.

Further in the statement:

We realize that the primary impetus for prudent action must come from the will of the people, families and those in the private sector. Held to this standard of common good, action by government is often needed to assure the health and well-being of all people. We pledge, therefore, to give serious consideration to responsible policies that acceptably address the conditions set forth in this declaration.

Here they fall for the lie of Socialism that government action in the common good” to “assure the health and well-being of all people.” That is a lie…the best example of the proper philosophy of government is provided in the Preamble of the Declaration of Independence:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

The institution, and calling for, of new laws and regulations in support of a fictitious “Global Warming” is a crime against God, Humanity, and will result in the further loss of freedom. It is wrong.

Conclusion

We the undersigned, in accordance with our Christian moral convictions and Southern Baptist doctrines, pledge to act on the basis of the claims made in this document. We will not only teach the truths communicated here but also seek ways to implement the actions that follow from them. In the name of Jesus Christ our Lord, we urge all who read this declaration to join us in this effort. Laus Deo!

The claims made in this document are built upon a foundation of sand, and will be washed away in the next few years of cooler temperatures.

If you are a Southern Baptist, please forward this to your church leaders.

The people involved in this project need to prayerfully reconsider their position in the light of the information provided in this post, and the links below to voices who speak more eloquently than I do about the lie of Global Warming:

Timothy Birdnow: The Slowing Sun and Global Cooling

EtherZone

Gateway Pundit: Brrrr Series of Posts

The Vanguard

Glowarming Skeptics

Al Fin: Politics, Science, Loot

Al Fin: Global Warming, State Religion

Daily Tech: Monitors report Wide Scale Global Cooling

Carnival of Climate Change

Solar Cycle 24: Amateur Radio Operators Discuss Global Warming

Heartland Institute: 2008 International Conference on Climate Change

Posted in Global Ice Age, global warming, Lies From The Left, Religious Freedom | 1 Comment »