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Archive for the ‘CAGW’ Category

The American Phsyical Society Reverses View On Global Warming, Will Sponsor Debates To Test Validity

Posted by Thunder Pig on July 17, 2008

The American Physical Society, an organization representing nearly 50,000 physicists, has reversed its stance on climate change and is now proclaiming that many of its members disbelieve in human-induced global warming. The APS is also sponsoring public debate on the validity of global warming science. The leadership of the society had previously called the evidence for global warming “incontrovertible.”

In a posting to the APS forum, editor Jeffrey Marque explains,”There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution.”

Source: Watts Up With That?


Commentary

I note that today is the 74th day in a row without a sunspot, and what may be a Cycle 23 spot is coming around the western limb of the sun. And for all you lefties that keep quoting the various IPCC Reports, read this devastating analysis [pdf download] of that flawed organization:

The IPCC is a single-interest organisation, whose charter presumes a widespread human influence on climate, rather than consideration of whether such influence may be negligible or missing altogether. Though the IPCC’s principles also state that a wide range of views is to be sought when selecting lead authors and contributing authors, this rule has been honored more in the breach than in the observance. More than two-thirds of all authors of chapter 9 of the IPCC’s 2007 climate-science assessment are part of a clique whose members have co-authored papers with each other and, we can surmise, very possibly at times acted as peer-reviewers for each other’s work.

Of the 44 contributing authors, more than half have co-authored papers with the lead authors or coordinating lead authors of chapter 9.It is no surprise, therefore, that the majority of scientists who are skeptical of a human influence on climate significant enough to be damaging to the planet were unrepresented in the authorship of chapter 9. Many of the IPCC authors were climate modelers – or associated with laboratories committed to modeling – unwilling to admit that their models are neither accurate nor complete.

Posted in CAGW, Global Ice Age, global warming, Solar Cycles | Leave a Comment »

Graphing Temperatures and Counting Sunspots

Posted by Thunder Pig on July 4, 2008

There are many people tracking what may be the beginning of a new temperture trend…downward. Among them, comes this report:

The latest UAH anomaly is -0.114. On the heels of a -0.183 reading for May, this is the steppest 2-month negative anomaly since Sept/Oct 1993. It’s the lowest 3-month anomaly since 1997. The latest reading gives 10 consecutive year-over-year anomalies that are lower than previous year. The last such stretch was in the period beginning May 1999. The negative trend line goes back to July 1997 – exactly 11 years.

 That comes from Digital Diatribes, who does yeoman’s work on tracking numbers, building spreadsheets and graphs.

And from another Digital Warrior, comes this graph:

The graph plots the long term trend [1st order curve in blue] against the short term trend [5th order curve in red].

The long term trend line is simply a first-order curve [line] from the beginning temperature to the ending temperature, and it treats all the ups and downs in between as random noise, and the short term trend takes into account more of the data using a fifth-order curve; and is one of the form fx5 + ex4 + dx3 + cx2 + bx + a, and is much more robust for fitting temperature trends.

The fifth-order curve is a leading indicator that can indicate the future direction of the first-order curve. Of course, my bet is that the Global Warming Religionists will simply move their beginning plot back to the Little Ice Age like some of the commenters have suggested.
Since no one seems to be plotting the moving averages of the data like I do for stock prices, I wonder if there would be any utility in doing that.

I still remember the predictions by NASA that Solar Cycle 24 was going to be “one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago” and here we are, two years late for the solar minimum, and the sun the most quiescent in a very long time. A few Solar Cycle 24 sunspots appeared in January, but their number has been few and far between, with Solar Cycle 23 sunspots still appearing at a greater frequency than the 24 spots. The solar minimum is measured at the point in time where the spots of the new cycle out number the spots of the old cycle. It has been two months since the last Cycle 24 spot.

NASA is still standing by their already outdated April 2007 forecast.

The current sunspot number is 0.

I wonder when the Legacy Media will start to notice that the predictions of the Global Warming Religionists are not coming to pass?

Posted in CAGW, Global Ice Age, science | Leave a Comment »

June 12th Is Carbon Belch Day Updated With Trapped Ice Breaker News

Posted by Thunder Pig on May 29, 2008

The idea is to generate as much carbon-dioxide as possible that day as protest, and to mock those who participated in the Earth Hour on March 31st:

Conservative grassroots group Grassfire.org wants people to waste as much energy as possible on June 12 by “hosting a barbecue, going for a drive, watching television, leaving a few lights on, or even smoking a few cigars.”

The point: the group wants to “help Americans break free from the ‘carbon footprint guilt’ being imposed by Climate Alarmists.”

Grassfire.org says it’s skeptical over claims that man-made sources of carbon dioxide emissions — from automobile exhausts to manufacturing plants — are raising the Earth’s temperature at a dangerous rate. Theories about global warming were highlighted by former Vice President Al Gore’s 2006 film, An Inconvenient Truth.

Grassfire.org president Steve Elliott, in a statement, said such theories are off the mark. “It’s time for Americans to purge ourselves of the false guilt that Al Gore and the Climate Alarmists have placed on us,” Elliott said.

Source: Sister Toldjah

Commentary

Yes!!!

It’s about time people began to participate in mocking the left on a larger, more co-ordinated scale. I will be participating in an CO2 producing series of events that day as well. Perhaps even a bonfire.

**update** 8.45am

A story found on The Pirates Cove relates the story of a powerful Russian Ice-Breaker has become trapped by unusually thick polar ice. Betcha you won’t see that story on the Legacy Media!!! It would put the lie to the Global Warming Hoax from the Left.

Everything the Left is telling you from Global Warming to DDT to Iraq to Taxes is a lie, and the sooner people realize that, the better.

Posted in CAGW, Conservative Counter Protest, Global Tax, global warming | Leave a Comment »

Ultralong Solar Cycle 23 and Possible Consequences

Posted by Thunder Pig on May 26, 2008

Here are snippets from the report:

SOLAR CYCLES AND TEMPERATURES

When the sun is more active, it is brighter than when it is quiet. This difference in brightness or irradiance over the 11 year cycle is about 0.1%. The irradiance change though since the little ice age may be as high as 0.4 or 0.5% and has been used to explain the ice age and recovery since. Even on the shorter term, there are other solar factors at play besides simple brightness or irradiance changes.

While irradiance changes just 0.1% over the 11 year cycle, ultraviolet radiation changes 6 to 8% and shorter wavelengths even more. Ultraviolet radiation destroys ozone, an exothermic process which produces warming in the higher atmosphere in low to mid latitudes that works its way down to the middle troposphere in time. Labitzke (2001) has shown statistically significant differences of temperatures in the lower stratosphere into the middle troposphere with the 11 year solar cycle (warmest at max) which she attributes to solar flux induced ultraviolet variance. Shindell et al NASS GISS (1999) showed results from a global climate model including ozone and UV found UV induced stratospheric ozone changes and generated heat that penetrates into the troposphere, in effect confirming Labitzke’s findings.

Also an active sun causes a diffusion of cosmic rays, which have a low cloud enhancement effect through ion mediated nucleation. Low clouds reflect radiation and have a net cooling effect. The absence of them during active solar periods means more radiation reaching the surface. Enhanced low cloudiness during solar minima would augment cooling.

–==[SNIP]==–

The best forecast in recent years has been by Ken Schatten (AI Solutions) and Sabatino Sofia (Yale). That forecast requires analysis of conditions at solar minimum and since that has not clearly happened yet it is not available. Schatten has another method he has used and is projecting a quieter (SSN maximum of 80 or less) cycle 24.

Clilverd and others in 2007 did a statistical analysis [pdf report] of the various cycles and used their superimposition to correctly hindcast the past cycles. He projects a cycle max of around 40 for the next two cycles, similar to the Dalton Minimum 200 years ago.

A similar finding was made by Archibald who speculates a major cooling ahead that could rival or be worse than the Dalton Minimum. In the hyperlinked paper [pdf report], he even projects the impact on some US locations based on historical trendlines. Such a cooling would of course further call into question the idea that greenhouse gases are behind all the changes in our climate and natural factors are now suddenly unimportant. In our recent stories, we have shown how important ENSO and the multidecadal cycles in the oceans are to temperatures. It is my belief that someday we will find proof that soplar changes drive the ocean cycles which drive the land temperatures.

Source: Intellicast (This Week In Weather)

Commentary

I’ve warned repeatedly on this blog that we may be headed for a Cold Catastrophe. This flies in the face of the Global Warming Hoaxers, Progressives and Socialists. The globe has been coolling since 1998, and even more is in store in the years ahead. Growing seasons will shorten, fuel supplies will dwindle as the winters lengthen, and people will die because these very same Global Warming people denied the truth of a cooling globe. Perhaps this folly will kill as many people as their failed ideology of Communism did in the 20th Century…when will people learn to do the opposite of what these progressives advocate?

Posted in CAGW, Global Ice Age, global warming, Progressives, science | 1 Comment »

A Climate of Belief

Posted by Thunder Pig on May 8, 2008

Interesting article full of references about the unreliability of climate models. A taste:

So the bottom line is this: When it comes to future climate, no one knows what they’re talking about. No one. Not the IPCC nor its scientists, not the US National Academy of Sciences, not the NRDC or National Geographic, not the US Congressional House leadership, not me, not you, and certainly not Mr. Albert Gore. Earth’s climate is warming and no one knows exactly why. But there is no falsifiable scientific basis whatever to assert this warming is caused by human-produced greenhouse gasses because current physical theory is too grossly inadequate to establish any cause at all.

Nevertheless, those who advocate extreme policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions inevitably base their case on GCM projections, which somehow become real predictions in publicity releases. But even if these advocates admitted the uncertainty of their predictions, they might still invoke the Precautionary Principle and call for extreme reductions “just to be safe.” This principle says, “Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.34 That is, even if we don’t fully know that CO2 is dangerously warming Earth climate, we should curtail its emission anyway, just in case. However, if the present uncertainty limit in General Circulation Models is at least ±100 degrees per century, we are left in total ignorance about the temperature effect of increasing CO2. It’s not that we, “lack … full scientific certainty,” it’s that we lack any scientific certainty. We literally don’t know whether doubling atmospheric CO2 will have any discernible effect on climate at all.

Source: Skeptic
Hat Tip: Al Fin

Posted in CAGW, global warming, science | Leave a Comment »

Environmentalists’ Wild Predictions

Posted by Thunder Pig on May 8, 2008

Climate Changes In Cycles
The latest from Walter E. Williams on the failed predictions of doom by a legion of lying lefties (but I repeat myself):

Now that another Earth Day has come and gone, let’s look at some environmentalist predictions that they would prefer we forget.

At the first Earth Day celebration, in 1969, environmentalist Nigel Calder warned, “The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind.” C.C. Wallen of the World Meteorological Organization said, “The cooling since 1940 has been large enough and consistent enough that it will not soon be reversed.” In 1968, Professor Paul Ehrlich, Vice President Gore’s hero and mentor, predicted there would be a major food shortage in the U.S. and “in the 1970s … hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death.” Ehrlich forecasted that 65 million Americans would die of starvation between 1980 and 1989, and by 1999 the U.S. population would have declined to 22.6 million. Ehrlich’s predictions about England were gloomier: “If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”

In 1972, a report was written for the Club of Rome warning the world would run out of gold by 1981, mercury and silver by 1985, tin by 1987 and petroleum, copper, lead and natural gas by 1992. Gordon Taylor, in his 1970 book “The Doomsday Book,” said Americans were using 50 percent of the world’s resources and “by 2000 they [Americans] will, if permitted, be using all of them.” In 1975, the Environmental Fund took out full-page ads warning, “The World as we know it will likely be ruined by the year 2000.”

Harvard University biologist George Wald in 1970 warned, “… civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.” That was the same year that Sen. Gaylord Nelson warned, in Look Magazine, that by 1995 “… somewhere between 75 and 85 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”

It’s not just latter-day doomsayers who have been wrong; doomsayers have always been wrong. In 1885, the U.S. Geological Survey announced there was “little or no chance” of oil being discovered in California, and a few years later they said the same about Kansas and Texas. In 1939, the U.S. Department of the Interior said American oil supplies would last only another 13 years. In 1949, the Secretary of the Interior said the end of U.S. oil supplies was in sight. Having learned nothing from its earlier erroneous claims, in 1974 the U.S. Geological Survey advised us that the U.S. had only a 10-year supply of natural gas. The fact of the matter, according to the American Gas Association, there’s a 1,000 to 2,500 year supply.

Source: Walter E. Williams (please read the whole thing)

Commentary

My favorite passage from the column is the following Glittering Jewel of Colossal Ignorance:

Harvard University biologist George Wald in 1970 warned, “… civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.” That was the same year that Sen. Gaylord Nelson warned, in Look Magazine, that by 1995 “… somewhere between 75 and 85 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”

It is the same with the Global Warming Hoax, and lefties (and their useful idiots) try to use that lie to enact various schemes designed to kill capitalism and institute socialism in it’s place…even trying to use carbon as currency.

It is my hope that we can hold them off long enough for the effects of the current cooling cycle to become evident to all…and wake people up that the very efforts of lefties to stave off Global Warming will only worsen the effects of the coming cool down of the globe.

We should be Exploring and Drilling for Oil, mining coal, building oil refineries, coal gasification plants, coal and nuclear power plants as fast as humanly possible to mitigate the catastrophe that will see bitterly cold winters, and shorter growing seasons that may see millions starve.

Liberalism and it’s sister ideology of Communism aren’t satisfied with 100 million dead in the 20th century…their false gods demand millions more in the 21st.

Previously:

Global warming Update: Spring Snow in Britain

The Sun is Dimming and Scientists Fight for Funding to Study for Harbingers of New Ice Age

Russian scientist says Earth could soon face new Ice Age

More Inconvenient Truth for Algore
Warming Much Less Than Previously Thought

Fire and Ice–Journalists Can’t Decide

A Global Temperature Chart
Not in Al Gore’s Movie

There’s more…but you get the picture.

Posted in CAGW, economic socialism, Global Ice Age, Lies From The Left | Leave a Comment »

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Has Switched To Cold

Posted by Thunder Pig on April 30, 2008

Brrrr!….sounds like more cool weather headed this way!

A cool-water anomaly known as La Niña occupied the tropical Pacific Ocean throughout 2007 and early 2008. In April 2008, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that while the La Niña was weakening, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation—a larger-scale, slower-cycling ocean pattern—had shifted to its cool phase.

This image shows the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean from April 14–21, 2008. The anomaly compares the recent temperatures measured by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite with an average of data collected by the NOAA Pathfinder satellites from 1985–1997. Places where the Pacific was cooler than normal are blue, places where temperatures were average are white, and places where the ocean was warmer than normal are red.

The cool water anomaly in the center of the image shows the lingering effect of the year-old La Niña. However, the much broader area of cooler-than-average water off the coast of North America from Alaska (top center) to the equator is a classic feature of the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The cool waters wrap in a horseshoe shape around a core of warmer-than-average water. (In the warm phase, the pattern is reversed).

Source: Watt’s Up With That?
Hat Tip: NC Media Watch
More Info: PDO
Solar Influence: Al Fin
Gateway Pundit: Brrrr!
Research Paper: Is Climate Sensitive to Solar Variability?

Despite what lefties say, the evidence is mounting, and the world is getting colder, which will be a disaster for mankind as growing seasons grow shorter, and as idiot lefties advocate burning food as fuel. And, as Jerry Pournelle points out, England did go from having Deciduous Trees to a 100 foot thick ice sheet in just a hundred years.

Posted in CAGW, disaster, Global Ice Age, NASA, science | Leave a Comment »

Project Vulcan CO2 Map and Video

Posted by Thunder Pig on April 10, 2008

I’m a Map Geek, and one of my favorite Map Blogs, The Map Room, spotlighted a map released from Project Vulcan, and I took the liberty of cutting the portion out of our region, and sharing it with you here:

There is also a video that explains a bit more:

Project Vulcan

Of course, Global warming is still a hoax, CO2 is a very minor Green House Gas, and the globe is now coolingI just like maps.

Posted in CAGW, Environmental Lunacy | Leave a Comment »

Glenn Beck and NewsBusters Expose Global Warming Bullies

Posted by Thunder Pig on April 10, 2008

Last week, the BBC ran an article talking about how global temperatures haven’t increased since 1998–an objective fact. But facts don’t matter to the environmentalist wacko crowd. Angry about the article, an activist threatened the BBC reporter who caved almost immediately and censored himself.

Video is of NewsBusters associate editor Noel Sheppard on the April 8, 2008 edition of “Glenn Beck” on CNN Headline News discussing media bias on global warming.

I can hear lefty heads exploding across the land as their lies become exposed, and you can expect their attempts at censorship to only increase. That is, until they can open their Stalinist Re-education Camps!

Posted in breaking news, CAGW, censorship, glenn beck, global warming, Legacy Media, Lies From The Left | Leave a Comment »

Waiting For Solar Cycle 24

Posted by Thunder Pig on March 24, 2008

Waiting for 24

This is a time of turmoil within all fields of climate science–although you would never know it from the public front as reflected by the popular media. The orthodoxy is circling the wagons, with the unquestioning assistance of global media and national governments, inter-governments, and non-governmental lobbyist organisations.

Under a Stalinist world government, the climate orthodoxy might have a chance of pulling the wool over the global public’s eyes long enough to put an irrevocable “climate change economic regime” into place. Under such an economic regime, market mechanisms would be so painfully and dysfunctionally distorted that even in the case of a significant climate cooling–equivalent to a Maunder Minimum–the ability of human science and technology to respond in a timely or effective fashion will have been hamstrung.

Source: Al Fin

The longer it takes for #24 to begin, the cooler it will get…

Posted in CAGW, Global Ice Age, science | 1 Comment »