Thunderpig’s Mirror

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: Rasmussen

Posted by Thunder Pig on May 5, 2008

Here is some more polling data for you to chew on before the North Carolina and Indiana primaries tomorrow:

The Democrat Race is tight (within the margin of error):

  1. 46% Barack Obama
  2. 45% Hillary Clinton

Interesting Democrat Demographics

Clinton leads Obama among the self-employed, entrepreneurs, and retirees. Obama leads among government employees and those who work for a private sector company. White working class voters remain a challenge for Obama. Among White voters who earn less than $75,000 a year, Clinton leads Obama 59% to 32%. The lower the income level, the bigger her margins. However, among White voters who earn more than $75,000 annually, Obama leads Clinton by eight percentage points.

And here are two scenarios for the general election:

Option A (most likely)

  1. 47% John McCain
  2. 43% Barack Obama

Option B (not so much)

  1. 47% John McCain
  2. 43% Hillary Clinton

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

Source: Rasmussen Reports

Commentary

Tomorrow will be a test for the veracity of the polls, and for seeing how much damage the Reverend Wright story has done to Obama. He once led Hillary by 20 points in North Carolina, and may be barely ten points ahead at the close of the polls tomorrow.

I expect the super delegates to be cowered by the shrill voices of the progressive wing of the Democrat party…and allow an untenable candidate to advance to the primary. They will fail in their function. The Hunt Commission‘s work will be ignored, and the Democrats will taste bitter defeat, and will continue to do so as long as the progressives retain control over the Daily Kos, the 527 PACs, and a willing Sugar Daddy named George Soros allows them a voice beyond their numbers.

They will likely win more Senate and House seats if McCain’s coat-tails aren’t made of conservative cloth, and this will obscure the deadly poison the progressives have injected into the Democrat party, especially if Hillary is able to mount a floor fight at the convention. No Democrat has ever won the Presidential Race when the nomination was not won prior to the Party Convention, nor after an April lock on the nomination.

I wonder what kind of conspiracy theory of the ‘stolen election’ variety the Democrats will dream up to explain away three defeats in a row for the White House? Now, THAT will be entertaining!



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