It’s funny that McCain made both lists.
Archive for the ‘polls’ Category
Posted by Thunder Pig on July 12, 2008
Posted by Thunder Pig on May 5, 2008
Here is some more polling data for you to chew on before the North Carolina and Indiana primaries tomorrow:
The Democrat Race is tight (within the margin of error):
- 46% Barack Obama
- 45% Hillary Clinton
Interesting Democrat Demographics
Clinton leads Obama among the self-employed, entrepreneurs, and retirees. Obama leads among government employees and those who work for a private sector company. White working class voters remain a challenge for Obama. Among White voters who earn less than $75,000 a year, Clinton leads Obama 59% to 32%. The lower the income level, the bigger her margins. However, among White voters who earn more than $75,000 annually, Obama leads Clinton by eight percentage points.
And here are two scenarios for the general election:
Option A (most likely)
- 47% John McCain
- 43% Barack Obama
Option B (not so much)
- 47% John McCain
- 43% Hillary Clinton
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.
Source: Rasmussen Reports
Tomorrow will be a test for the veracity of the polls, and for seeing how much damage the Reverend Wright story has done to Obama. He once led Hillary by 20 points in North Carolina, and may be barely ten points ahead at the close of the polls tomorrow.
I expect the super delegates to be cowered by the shrill voices of the progressive wing of the Democrat party…and allow an untenable candidate to advance to the primary. They will fail in their function. The Hunt Commission‘s work will be ignored, and the Democrats will taste bitter defeat, and will continue to do so as long as the progressives retain control over the Daily Kos, the 527 PACs, and a willing Sugar Daddy named George Soros allows them a voice beyond their numbers.
They will likely win more Senate and House seats if McCain’s coat-tails aren’t made of conservative cloth, and this will obscure the deadly poison the progressives have injected into the Democrat party, especially if Hillary is able to mount a floor fight at the convention. No Democrat has ever won the Presidential Race when the nomination was not won prior to the Party Convention, nor after an April lock on the nomination.
I wonder what kind of conspiracy theory of the ‘stolen election’ variety the Democrats will dream up to explain away three defeats in a row for the White House? Now, THAT will be entertaining!
Posted by Thunder Pig on April 15, 2008
Some liberal commentators have downplayed the effect of Barack Obama’s fundraising speech at a San Francisco fundraiser last week. But that’s wishful thinking. Along with the revelations about Obama’s pastor Jeremiah Wright, his remarks in San Francisco will haunt him not only in the upcoming primaries in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia, but also in the general election against John McCain, assuming he gets the Democratic nomination.
To win in November, a Democratic presidential candidate has to carry most of the industrial heartland states that stretch from Pennsylvania to Missouri. That becomes even more imperative if a Democrat can’t carry Florida–and because of his relative weakness in South Florida, Obama is unlikely to do so against McCain. Ruy Teixeira and I have calculated that in the heartland states, a Democratic presidential candidate has to win from 45 to 48 percent of the white working class vote. In some states, like West Virginia and Kentucky, the percentage is well over a majority.
Some Democrats insist that Obama need not worry about these states because he will be able to make up for a defeat in Ohio or even Pennsylvania with a victory in Virginia or Colorado. But in Virginia, McCain will be able to draw upon coastal suburbanites closely tied to the military. These voters backed Democrats like Chuck Robb and Jim Webb, who are both veterans, but they may not go for Obama. And in the Southwest, McCain will be able to challenge Obama among Hispanics. So to win in November, Obama will have to win almost all of these heartland states. Which is a problem, because even before he uttered his infamous words about these voters “clinging” to guns, religion, abortion, and fears about free trade, Obama looked vulnerable in the region. A look at the white working class’s relationship with earlier Democratic candidates underscores the various reasons why.
Source: The New Republic
Hat Tip: Race 4 2008
It’s gratifying to have some of the punditocracy see what I’ve already seen. It is very ironic that the cross-over shenanigans in new Hampshire that ressurected Mccain also served to put forth our candidate that is most acceptable outside our party. If things had been left alone…we would have had Mitt Romney, a candidate unacceptable to certain ignorant Christians who supported the Huckster…a wolf in shepherd’s clothing. Enough of them would have sat out to give the election to whom ever the Democrats put up.
Posted by Thunder Pig on March 29, 2008
Here are the results of the Macon County GOP Straw Poll, taken after the spirited discussion forum:
- 32 John Armor
- 19 Carl Mumpower
- 11 Spence Campbell
In the NC Gubernatorial Straw Poll , the results were:
- 34 Fred Smith
- 5 Bob Orr
- 3 Bill Graham
- 1 Pat McCrory
I will have video up later, so keep checking back.
The Congressional Debate was the most spirited yet.
John Armor Wins Macon Straw Poll
Posted by Thunder Pig on March 27, 2008
(Flat Rock) Charlotte Mayor Pat McCory scored big in the Hendersonville Tribune / West Wins straw poll at Wednesdayâ€™s gubernatorial debate at Blue Ridge Community College. The poll measured those in attendance on their feelings before and after the debate. Roughly half of the crowd of about 250 participated. The results were:
Before the Debate
Fred Smith 47 votes – 50%
Bob Orr 23 votes – 25%
Pat McCrory 12 votes – 13%
Bill Graham 11 votes – 12%
Elbie Powers No votes – 0%
After the Debate
Pat McCrory 54 votes 44%
Fred Smith 41 votes 33%
Bob Orr 18 votes 14%
Bill Graham 11 votes 9%
Elbie Powers No votes 0%
Some were undecided before the debate.
Some voted one way before the debate and another way after the debate.
West Wins Financial Director, Clifton Philbeck, said that Smith did
very well before the debate because, “He’s been out here a lot. People
know him. They are familiar with him.” He also said, “For some
people this is the first time they’ve heard (McCory) speak and he
connected well with them.”
The straw poll was conducted by West Wins Political Action and
Education Committee for the Hendersonville Tribune. West Wins is a Republican organization dedicated to bringing attention to the needs of Western North Carolina.
West Wins Executive Director Larry Ford noted,”These are very
interesting results. We really didn’t expect to see minds changed like they evidently were. The turnout, at 8:00 AM indicates that Western North Carolina is looking for somebody to represent us.”
In addition to heading West Wins, Ford is also Vice Chairman of the
Henderson County GOP and Vice President of the Henderson County Republican
Men’s Club, the two sponsoring organizations. The debate held at
Blue Ridge Community College, was sponsored by the Henderson County Republican Men’s Club and the Henderson County Republican Party. There was no attempt to determine if everyone was likely to vote in the Republican primary.
West Wins Website
Posted by Thunder Pig on March 20, 2008
Hillary has taken the lead over Obama in the daily opinion polls over Obama, again.
- 49% Hillary Clinton
- 42% Barack Obama
And here are how the two are polled against the GOP Nominee:
- 47% John MCain
- 43% Barack Obama
- 48% John McCain
- 45% Hillary Clinton
Methodology: Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general election results are based on combined data from March 14-18, 2008. For results based on this sample of 4,376 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from March 16-18, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,209 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
To receive Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports each day as soon as they are published, please register here and add Gallup Daily to your e-mail subscriptions.
It appears to me that the longer this intra-mural fighting goes on in the Democrat Party, the better off it is for the GOP in the fall. I have a source that tells me that this firestorm over Obama’a Preacher is nothing compared to what the Clinton Campaign has in store for the lead-up to Pennsylvania and North Carolina. We’ll see. I happen to think that the Reverend Wright stuff is a campaign killer. I just do not see how Obama can carry the south after that material has gotten into the wild.
One good thing about this whole affair is that it has gotten the poison that is Black Liberation Theology out into the general public. That is a theology that is just as wrong as some other offshoots of Christianity.
The man recognized by Obama’s church as laying the foundation of their theology is Dr. James Cone. Here is his view on sin and salvation:
In Cone’s view, sin is “a condition of human existence in which man denies the essence of God’s liberating activity as revealed in Jesus Christ.” In this view, sin is anything that is contrary to the oppressed community or its liberation.
Salvation for Cone primarily has to do with earthly reality, not heavenly hopes. “To see the salvation of God is to see this people [i.e., the blacks] rise up against their oppressors, demanding that justice become a reality now and not tomorrow.” Hence, though Cone often speaks of Jesus as the Liberator, in practical terms he emphasizes the human work of self-liberation among blacks and downplays divine help.
Of course, since Black Theologians still claim to be Christians, one must refute them from Scripture. Chapter 4 of John does that quite nicely.
The Jews considered the Samaritans an “unclean” mixed breed – with Israelite and Assyrian ancestry. Because of this, the Jews were harshly prejudiced against the Samaritans and discriminated against them. This cultural hostility led the Samaritan woman to ask Jesus: “‘You are a Jew and I am a Samaritan woman. How can you ask me for a drink?’ (For Jews do not associate with Samaritans)” (John 4:9).
During the ensuing discussion, the woman asked Jesus about which cultural place of worship was valid: Mt. Gerizim where the Samaritans built their temple, or Jerusalem where the Jews built theirs. Anthony Evans alerts us to the significance of Jesus’ response: “Jesus does not hesitate to let her know that once you bring God into the picture, the issue is no longer culture, but truth. He informs her that the question is not Mt. Gerizim or Jerusalem, that it is not according to Samaritan tradition or Jewish tradition (v. 21). In fact, He denounces her cultural heritage in relation to worship, for he told her, ‘Ye worship ye know not what’ (v. 22). When she began to impose her culture on sacred things, Christ invaded her cultural world to tell her she was spiritually ignorant.”
Jesus transcended the whole issue of culture in discussing spiritual issues with the woman. When it came to her relationship with God, the issue moved from her cultural heritage to her heart and the criteria for that relationship was truth. Jesus acknowledged cultural distinctions, but disallowed them when they interfered in any way with truth about God. A principle we can derive from this is: Culture must always take back seat to the truth of God as revealed in Scripture.
When one places one’s race, cultural heritage, or nationality first in their relationship with God, that person, or group of people, become guilty of breaking the very first commandment, that of having other gods. Anything in our lives can become as gods if we let them. It is also a form of bondage. Manay black people have traded one form of bondage (physical slavery) for others (psychology and spiritual slavery).
My faith holds that God is no respecter of persons, for he made us all, and wants us to become his adopted children.
Like it or not, we are a Christian nation built upon the principle of Religious Liberty. The mainstream holds that it is wrong to point out differences between Christianity and other faiths. Never let them get away with telling you that. They are trying to silence you because they know that this nation is still a majority Christian nation, although most of that number appear to be nominal, and/or sleeping, Christians. Their primary fear is that they awake, and apply their beliefs to their decision-making process of choosing their elected representatives to this great Republic known as the United States of America.
Posted by Thunder Pig on March 15, 2008
God Bless Ralph Nader!
- 45% John McCain
- 39% Hillary Clinton
- 6% Ralph Nader
- 44% John McCain
- 39% Barack Obama
- 5% Ralph Nader
The introduction of long-time activist Ralph Nader into the mix is having an effect on the race, as he wins enough support to make a difference, the poll shows. Nader entered the race recently, charging that there is little difference between the Republican and Democratic parties and their presidential candidates. Using the same argument eight years ago, his presence on the ballot in Florida may well have tipped the presidential election away from Democrat Al Gore and in favor of George W. Bush. His run four years ago yielded less dramatic results, but the political atmosphere has changed since 2004, and may be more favorable for him again, the Zogby survey shows.
In the McCain-Clinton-Nader match-up, McCain leads mainly because of a significant advantage among independents. Among those voters, he wins support from 45%, compared to 28% for Clinton and 15% for Nader. McCain wins 79% support from Republicans, while Clinton wins 75% support from Democrats.
Clinton leads only among those voters under age 30, while McCain leads among all voters over age 30. Nader also does well among the young, winning 12% support among those under age 30. Among men, McCain leads 51% to 33% for Clinton. Among women, Clinton leads, 45% to 40% for McCain. Nader wins 8% among men and 3% among women.
Nader also does particularly well as a third-party candidate among progressives, winning 15% support from the group that would very likely otherwise go to Clinton were he not in the race. At the other end of the ideological scale, he wins 12% among libertarians. He also wins 6% support among both conservatives and liberals.
Source: Zogby International
And it can only get better the longer Clinton and Obama sling mud at each other!
Posted by Thunder Pig on March 8, 2008
This just in from Henderson County:
“With 142 Republican voters, party leaders, and activists casting ballots, this straw poll was by far the biggest (50% plus more) in WNC so far this primary season” according to HCRP Chairman Robert Danos.**
“Performing strong with this large a sampling of area Republicans is certainly a strong gauge of candidates’ support and organization.”
The results were as follows:
Who is your choice as of today for the Republican 11th District Congressional nomination in 2008?
Who is your choice as of today for the Republican Gubernatorial nomination in 2008?
Who should be the pick for the Vice Presidential slot on the Republican ticket in 2008?
Richard Burr 43
Mike Huckabee 22
Condaleeza Rice 12
Mark Sanford 11
Mitt Romney 10
All Others Less Than 10 votes
**Compared to # of voters in straw polls in Buncombe (85 votes) and McDowell (87 votes) which had been the largest such events in the 11th District up until now. Same day events in Catawba (only 63 voters) and Transylvania did not do a straw poll. No other WNC counties have held straw polls.
Posted by Thunder Pig on February 28, 2008
The Mason-Dixon Poll on the numbers for the general election:
- John McCain 47%
- Barack Obama 37%
- John McCain 49%
- Hillary Clinton 40%
McCain leads Obama 47%-37% and Clinton 49%-40%. The Arizona senator leads the Democrats across the board. About 80% of Republicans are behind McCain. Only 66% of Democrats are behind Obama and 72% are backing Clinton in one-one-one match-ups with McCain. Currently, 17% of Democrats indicate that in a match up with Obama, they’d support McCain; 16% say so in a match up with Clinton. Seventeen percent of Dems also say they are undecided in a match up with Obama; 13% say so with regard to McCain-Clinton. Those numbers though could be a reflection of McCain being the presumptive nominee and Obama and Clinton still engaged in a fight for the nomination.
Wow! This confirms my assertions here, and in several forums that Obama will be easier to defeat than Hillary.