Thunderpig’s Mirror

Rasmussen Reports Daily National Primary Tracking Polls (2/17)

Posted by Thunder Pig on February 18, 2008

I didn’t get around to posting this one yesterday:

The GOP National Primary…

  1. 50% John McCain
  2. 29% Mike Huckabee
  3. 08% Ron Paul

Okay, this is a three man race. If all things were roughly equal, you expect the three contenders to have within a few points of 33%. Only one does, and that is Huckles, who lags the median by 4 points. And the “great Ron Paul is still in single digits, some 25 points behind the median oof 33%. This reminds me of Patrick Buchanan’s ill-fated ride to June in the 1992 GOP Primary that ultimately left the GOP fractured, and allowed a Democrat with only 42% support ride through the split provided by Perot’s 3rd party run and Pat Buchanan’s 12th party run.

John McCain has 17 points above the median, and 21 above his nearest competitor as he coasts to the nomination.

The Democrats…

  1. 47% Barack Obama
  2. 44% Hillary Clinton

This one is within the margin of error, but with the Legacy (as in old, outdated) calling the race Obama’s to lose with several wins in a row. Hillary is playing defense, and both are scrambling for the Deciders in the Democrat Party, the superdelegates that harken back to the era of smoky backroom deals of yesteryear.
They were essentially created to avoid another disaster like McGovern…although they did allow Mondale to slip through for a thorough thrashing.

And while we are using Rasmussen’s latest polling data, let’s look at the potential matchups in November:

  1. 46% Barack Obama
  2. 44% John McCain

  1. 49% John McCain
  2. 42% Hillary Clinton

Both of these figures look very promising because the GOP Candidate usually has to come back (if at all) from a deeper deficit in public opinion. However, November is a lifetime away in poll-years. Things will firm up a bit when the Conventions are done. If McCain chooses wisely for the Veep slot, it will be advantage McCain; despite the base continuing to remind him that conservatism is to his right.

I am optimistic because both the Democrat Candidates are fatally flawed. Either way, I have gigabytes of data awaiting a chance to roll them out during the course of this election cycle.

I also predict that this is the year of the Republican-leaning 527s, which will make up for the 2004 Democrat leaning 527s.

Sources: GOP Figures and Democrat Figures
Source: Rasmussen

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

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