Thunderpig’s Mirror

GOP Delegate Counts and Options

Posted by Thunder Pig on February 11, 2008

Here is an update on the GOP Delegate count, and what it means for the party convention this fall:

  1. 714/720 John McCain 60.7%
  2. 286/279 Mitt Romney 24%
  3. 217/197 M. Huckabee 18.2%
  4. 16 Ron Paul 1.3%

The first number is the CNN reckoning, and the second from Real Clear Politics. The number needed for the nomination is 1,191 delegates.

Okay, let’s flip the tally to reflect the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination on the first ballot, and agian the first number is from CNN, the second from RCP:

  1. 477/471 John McCain
  2. 905/912 Mitt Romney
  3. 974/994 Mike Huckabee
  4. 1175/1177 Ron Paul

THE SITUATION

Going forward, there are about 160-200 delegates to be awarded through the end of February, and another 300 or so in March, and 74 in April.

This means that by the end of April, McCain will very likely have enough delegates to take him to the very edge of being put over the top if Huckles stays in, and perhaps sometime in March, sooner if he comes to his senses and drops out. (265 delegates will awarded on March 4th alone).

I am really so not looking forward to McCain in the White House. As bad as he is, he will only be marginally better than his Democrat Opponent, who ever it turns out to be. The thing I see the most important about the elections this fall is to get conservatives elected in the House and Senate so that they can hold the line against who ever gets the win in November.

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