Thunderpig’s Mirror

Archive for January 8th, 2008

And Yet Another Presidential match-Maker Quiz

Posted by Thunder Pig on January 8, 2008

This one didn’t surprise me too much:

79% Tom Tancredo
78% Fred Thompson
75% Mitt Romney
74% Rudy Giuliani
70% John McCain
63% Mike Huckabee
56% Ron Paul
37% Joe Biden
32% Hillary Clinton
30% John Edwards
29% Bill Richardson
29% Chris Dodd
27% Barack Obama
20% Mike Gravel
14% Dennis Kucinich

2008 Presidential Candidate Matching Quiz

Hat Tip: Blackfive

Posted in 2008, President, Quiz | Leave a Comment »

Iraq Update for January 8th

Posted by Thunder Pig on January 8, 2008

Since the Legacy Media does such a poor job on keeping the public up to date on the progress of our military in Iraq, the task is falling to the New Media, and what bloggers can scrounge from military websites, and the websites of embedded bloggers (who may or may not be serving in the military), and bloggers who live in the region who report what is going on around them.

So here goes:

Despite the recent success in reducing the violence in Iraq, the fight against al Qaeda in Iraq and the Shia extremist terror groups is not over. Coalition and Iraqi forces have launched Operation Phantom Phoenix, a new operation targeting the terror groups throughout Iraq.

The scope of Phantom Phoenix is nationwide. The operation is “a series of joint Iraqi and Coalition division- and brigade-level operations to pursue and neutralize remaining al-Qaeda in Iraq and other extremist elements,” Lieutenant General Ray Odierno, the commander of Multinational Corps – Iraq stated. “Phantom Phoenix will synchronize lethal and non-lethal effects to exploit recent security gains and disrupt terrorist support zones and enemy command and control.”

The specific geographical locations targeted during Phantom Phoenix were not identified. Iraqi and Coalition forces will “pursue al-Qaeda and other extremists wherever they attempt to take sanctuary,” Odierno said.

The region northeast of Miqdadiyah will be a primary focus of the operation. Al Qaeda in Iraq has established a “haven” in the region, and has used this base to funnel attacks against Awakening and Concerned Local Citizens groups attempting to establish in the Baqubah region.

Source: Bill Roggio of The Long war Journal.

And here is a story about how U.S. Marines are training Iraqi soldiers, despite what you may hear from the Media, and the anti-war Congress Critters:

QAIM — Iraqi Soldiers are learning to fight and win on the battlefield thanks to the efforts of U.S. Marines. Soldiers from 1st Battalion, 3rd Brigade, 7th Iraqi Army Division, not only are engaged in a constant training cycle with Marines at Combat Outpost North, but also are excelling at it.

In the brisk winter breeze, Military Transition Team (MTT) members partnered with Marines from Weapons Company, Task Force 3rd Battalion, 2nd Marine Regiment, Regimental Combat Team 2, integrated key Iraqi Soldiers into their execution of several reactionary drills.

The Iraqi Soldiers observed and then participated in immediate-action and break-contact drills with the Marines so they could, in turn, teach their junior Soldiers the same tactics and procedures.

“It’s very important to integrate our training,” said Marine Staff Sgt. Charles D. Cox, a section leader for Weapons Company. “If we don’t integrate, and it comes time for us to do a joint operation, not everyone will be on the same sheet of music. Should something happen, everyone needs to know how to react.”

Training side by side while stationed together at Combat Outpost North, the Marines and Iraqi Soldiers interact daily.

“The closer we live, the faster they learn and the better they pick up on our techniques,” said Marine Cpl. Aaron Missey, a squad leader with Weapons Company. “It’s only a matter of time until we can all go home, and they can be secure in the fact that they have enough knowledge to stand on their own against oppressive forces.”

The Iraqi Soldiers at Combat Outpost North have gained the respect and admiration of their Marine comrades and continue to excel at their training.

Source: Multi-National Forces-Iraq, an excellent source of information.

And here is a year in review post:

Reviewing the dispatches from 2007 shows that the war in Iraq is not spiraling toward inevitable catastrophic failure. The year did not start out on a positive note.

In January 2007, growing doubts I had about our ability to stave off an eventual genocide in Iraq were intensified by our failure to competently manage the media battlespace. Within the military I sensed a growing censorship and was myself denied access to the battlefields in 2006. After months of fighting with Army Public Affairs for access, they relented, but only due to public pressure following the publication of an article in the Weekly Standard. An expanded version of the article “On Censorship” was published as the dispatch “Al Sahab—the Cloud” on my website. The article was blunt; by then I’d been fighting for about six months to re-embed with troops.

Source: Michael Yon Magazine Online, and if you have some extra money laying around, please consider donating to help him pay expenses to stay in the region and be a citizen-embed in the region. He is also putting together some of his material in order to publish a book about his experiences in Iraq called Moment of Truth in Iraq.

So, as you can see, things are not going as badly as we were told by the media and certain congress critters, like Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Jack Murtha, and others like Pete Stark.

Posted in 110th Congress, Heath Shuler, Iraq, Military, World War IV | Leave a Comment »

The Perfect Internet Storm

Posted by Thunder Pig on January 8, 2008

What destroyed Hillary Clinton’s campaign?
The obvious answer would be Barack Obama. But the destruction was accomplished through the agency of an Internet storm.
Those who remember the rapidity with which a story produced by 60 Minutes under the baton of Dan Rather was destroyed will know just how powerful an Internet storm can be.

In that instance, four documents were presented by 60 Minutes on September 8, 2004 — less than 2 months before the scheduled Presidential election — alleging that President Bush, who was standing for re-election had “disobeyed orders while in the Guard, and had undue influence exerted on his behalf to improve his record”. It was an accusation that was potentially devastating to Bush. On September 8 a reasonable observer would have made the linear projection that Bush’s re-election was doomed. But complex systems work in non-linear ways.

A confluence of factors explosively combined to generate a memetic storm. Small Internet sites, each insignificant by itself, began to resonate with the word that the 60 Minutes documents were faked. A variety of technical experts, drawn by what was effectively an open-source debugging exercise, found fault after fault with the documents. Within four days not only was the 60 Minutes expose discredited but reversed upon itself. By September 10, CBS News was internally admitting doubts about the 60 Minutes story. By September 11, 2004, the network was beginning to backpedal. Eventually the documents would be shown to be fakes. The scandal would cause the removal of high CBS officials, rip up the 60 Minutes news team which prepared the show and effectively ended the career of anchor Dan Rather.

It was the first public demonstration of an Internet storm.

Source: The Belmont Club

Commentary

The following won’t make sense until you have read the entire post at Wretchard’s:

Swarm Intelligence! Also, I wonder if there is a possibility a very adept organization could leverage this type of event if they identified the key (b)logs.

Posted in 2008, 5GW, black swan, Blogs, Concepts, Hillary Clinton | Leave a Comment »

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll for Jan 8th

Posted by Thunder Pig on January 8, 2008

New Poll From New Hampshire!

First, the GOP:

  • McCain 36% (34)
  • Romney 27% (29)
  • Huckabee 10% (10)
  • Giuliani 9% (9)
  • Paul 9% (6)
  • Undecided 5% (6)
  • Thompson 2% (3)

Survey of 859 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 5-7, 2008. The margin of error is +/– 3.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 4-6, 2008 are in parentheses.

These figures have a real horse race for third between Schmuckerbie, Julie Anne, and Ron Paul. This is not what I expected. I expect Ron Paul to finish ahead of Julie Annie, but not Julie Annie ahead of Thompson. We’ll know in about 12 hours.

Now, the Dems:

  • Obama 42% (39)
  • Clinton 29% (28)
  • Edwards 17% (18)
  • Richardson 5% (7)
  • Kucinich 2% (2)

I couldn’t find the particulars of the Democrat survey numbers…go figure.

Ouch! I had Clinton to within 6 of Obama, not 13! I wonder why Edwards isn’t able to capitalize on the ‘apparent’ breakup of Clinton, Inc? Could it be that the Democrat Party has freed itself from the ‘working man’ brand of populism just as the GOP is catching that dread disease?

Posted in candidates, Democrats, GOP, polls, Primaries | Leave a Comment »

HIllary Clinton Has An Ace In The Hole

Posted by Thunder Pig on January 8, 2008

There are two features of the Democratic nomination process that could help Hillary.

First, Democratic primaries and caucuses allocate delegates proportionally. Candidates win “pledged” delegates based not on whether they win a state – but on how many voters support them. So, for instance, even though Clinton and Edwards lost Iowa, they still won a few delegates.

Second, about 20% of all delegates to the Democratic convention are “super” or “unpledged” delegates. This quirky provision – which does not have a corollary on the Republican side – has its origins in Chicago, 1968. In the wake of that disastrous convention, the DNC formed the McGovern-Fraser Commission to recommend improvements for the nomination process. McGovern-Fraser suggested that the process be opened to rank-and-file Democrats on the principle of “one Democrat, one vote.” The reforms contributed to George McGovern (the same McGovern from the commission) winning the nomination in 1972. The party establishment did not like this. So, it added the super delegate provision to serve as a check on the party rank-and-file.

This year, according to the indispensable Green Papers, there will be 798 super delegates at the convention in Denver. They include all elected members of the Democratic National Committee, all current Democratic members of Congress (including non-voting delegates), all sitting Democratic governors, and past party luminaries (e.g. former presidents). Unlike pledged delegates, who are bound to particular candidates, super delegates are free to vote their consciences.

Here is how these rules could help Clinton.

Read the rest at Horse Race Blog.

Don’t count her out…as much as we would like to do so…we can’t. Because the super-delegates will act as a check on the rank-and-file Democrat. This will allow the party elites to call the shots unless there is an overwhelming vote against their candidate.
One thing the article does not take into account is, what if the super delegates come out in favor of Obama?

I will have to get a satellite dish in order to watch the conventions, even if I do have to run 500 foot of cable from the nearest place with a clear shot of the southern sky. At times like these, living in a gorge is uncool.

And watch this video of the media love-fest with the HildaBaest:

Posted in 2008, candidates, Democrats, Hillary Clinton | Leave a Comment »

West Carolina Report for January 8th

Posted by Thunder Pig on January 8, 2008

I have updated West Carolina Report for today, including the WNC, NC, National, and World War IV pages.

Today is the New Hampshire Primary, which promises to keep the GOP race open by providing us with another winner.

Huckabee won Iowa, Romney won Wyoming, and McCain is expected to win New Hampshire. I expect Romney to keep his delegate lead over his opponents.

Obamania is expected to sweep Obama to a second straight victory over his opponents.

Here is my list of predictions:

GOP:

  1. John McCain 32%
  2. Mitt Romney 30%
  3. Mike Huckabee 22%
  4. Ron Paul 10%
  5. Fred Thompson 5%
  6. Rudy Giuliani 3%

Dems:

  1. Barack Obama 36%
  2. Hillary Clinton 30%
  3. John Edwards 24%

My percentages may be off, but I feel pretty confident in the order of finish…I think Ron Paul could get as high as 14% due to underpolling in his demographic (paranoiacs tend not to answer the phone if the area code on the caller id is 202 or 212).

I’ll post the poll updates if I have time today…my schedule is pretty hectic.

Posted in 2008, candidates, Democrats, GOP, polls, predictions | Leave a Comment »