Thunderpig’s Mirror

Intrade Market Watch for Jan 4th

Posted by Thunder Pig on January 4, 2008

The Intrade Market picked the winners of the Iowa Caucus.

Here are the current (1.45pm) numbers for New Hampshire:

GOP:

  • McCain 74.9
  • Romney 21.0
  • Huckabee 1.4

Dems

  • Obama 67.0
  • Clinton 34.0
  • Edwards 0.1

Here are the new numbers for Party Nominations:

GOP

  • McCain 33.0
  • Giuliani 27.3
  • Romney 14.2
  • Huckabee 16.6
  • Paul 5.7
  • Thompson 2.8

Dems

  • Clinton 52.0
  • Obama 46.0
  • Edwards 2.8
  • Gore 1.8

2008 General Election

  • Clinton 31.5……… down from 40.0
  • Obama 25.5……… up from 17.0
  • McCain 13.2……… up from 11.1
  • Giuliani 10.1 ……..up from 10.0
  • Romney 6.4……… down from 7.3
  • Huckabee 5.3 …….up from 4.5
  • Paul 3.1…….. down from 3.4
  • Edwards 2.8…….. down from 4.0

Source: Intrade

According to these numbers, the winners were: Obama, McCain, and Huckabee. The losers were Clinton, Romney, and Edwards. Too close to call were Giuliani and Paul. Not even on the radar was my favorite, Fred Thompson, who refuses to talk in sound bites for the media. I hope his strategy works.

I wonder which will prove to be more accurate this year, the Scientific Polls or the Prediction Markets?

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